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Slot machines offer a very entertaining experience. These games are full of animations, bonuses, unique symbols, and huge wins.
It’s fun taking a chance at big prizes. Even if you don’t win, slot machines are an exciting way to pass the time.
Unfortunately, game makers don’t just rely on large payouts and cool animations to keep you playing. They instead program slot machines in a way that tempts you to play more than you originally planned.
Losses disguised as wins (LDWs) and near wins are two of the biggest factors that casinos use to keep you spinning the reels. Both can cause you to gamble longer and lose more money.
Obviously, you don’t want to fall into this trap. That’s why I’m going to discuss what LDWs and near wins are, along with which one you should be more concerned about.
What Are Losses Disguised as Wins?
Classic slot machines have three reels and a single payline. You insert a quarter into these machines and get a single chance to win in every round.
The slots world was once filled with these classic games. However, the industry began changing rapidly in the late 1970s. Computer technology enabled developers to make video slot machines.
One of those capabilities involves featuring dozens of paylines.
Nowadays, most slots have anywhere from 20 to 100 lines. This setup makes for more excitement because you have multiple chances to win in each round.
But this is also where LDWs come into play. You can earn a small payout yet still lose money overall.
Here’s an example:
- You bet $1 on a spin
- You win a $0.15 payout
- Lights and sound effects go off
- You feel like a winner thanks to the theatrics
- But you’ve actually lost $0.85 overall
It’s easy to see that this is a loss from a mathematical standpoint. However, developers make it harder to comprehend through the use of flashing lights and triumphant sounds.
What Are Near Wins?
A near win can be one of two things:
- Close jackpot calls, such as landing four out of the necessary five symbols
- Near payouts, such as getting two out of the required three symbols
Most people envision barely missing a jackpot when thinking of near wins. They get extremely excited when they’re 1-2 symbols away from winning the top prize. Even after missing the jackpot, they still collect a decent win (e.g., 500 credits).
Almost earning a small payout, on the other hand, doesn’t elicit the same excitement. Instead, gamblers are used to missing small prizes by one symbol.
It’s the close jackpot calls that keep people spinning the reels. What’s more is that some gamblers actually believe they have a better chance to win since they’re so close to the jackpot.
Here’s an example:
- A slot offers a progressive jackpot worth $100,000 coins for five lions in a payline
- You’re betting $0.01 per line
- You get four out of the necessary five lions
- You win 1,000 coins
- 1,000 x 0.01 = $10 payout
- You were so close to the jackpot that you decide to keep playing for hours in hopes of winning
It seems like you just barely missed out on a small fortune. However, the odds suggest a different story.
Most slot machines give you far better odds of earning a near-jackpot prize with four symbols versus getting all five required icons.
Logically speaking, you should take a close jackpot loss for what it is and move on. But many players make the mistake of believing that their chances have improved and will continue spinning.
Game developers know this, which is why they might make it slightly common to get 3-4 jackpot symbols (if payouts are much lower). Earning smaller prizes for the near-misses can make you more likely to keep playing.
Research Shows That Both LDWs and Near Wins Cause Bigger Losses
LDWs and near wins aren’t just myths created by gamblers to make themselves feel better about losing. These are instead real concepts that are backed by research.
In 2011, the University of Waterloo conducted a study on slots players. They wanted to see how gamblers treat real wins, LDWs, and complete losses (no prize on a spin).
Researchers measured heart rate changes and skin conductance response (SCR) amplitudes after each type of spin result.
Not surprisingly, complete losses produced low values for both SCR and heart rate changes. But LDWs, which are still overall losses, caused nearly the same excitement as real wins.
Research also shows that near wins make players feel like they’re more successful. A study revealed that both slot machines and social games (e.g., Candy Crush) use near wins to keep people playing.
These close calls are so powerful that some players may have the same response as they would to a jackpot. The major problem, though, is that they’re not getting anywhere near the same payout value.
My Take: LDWs Are Worse Than Near Wins
It’s hard to definitively say that near wins or LDWs are the greater evil. Both work in conjunction to keep gamblers playing more.
These aspects also create a risk-reward model, whereby players feel like they’re being rewarded for an LDW or near miss. This scenario leads gamblers to keep playing so that they can chase the rewarding feeling.
Again, it’s a close call on whether LDWs or near wins are worse. But I believe that losses disguised as wins are more powerful in tricking players.
LDWs have a number of aspects working in their corner, including a partial win, flashing lights, and triumphant sound effects. These factors create the perfect mix to make one feel like they’re winning — even when they’re having a terrible session.
I’m not suggesting that you don’t also have to watch out for near wins.
However, an LDW is an even stronger motivator to keep playing.
Losses disguised as wins can be further compounded by the dopamine spike you get from feeling like a winner. Dopamine is the brain chemical that’s responsible for many pleasurable feelings, such as winning money.
This neurotransmitter is a powerful motivator that can convince us to keep doing certain activities, even when we know they have bad long-term consequences. Playing slot machines longer and losing more money falls under this classification.
LDWs create consistent dopamine spikes because they happen more often than near wins. Therefore, you really must worry about those nickel and dime payouts on a $1 spin.
Other Pitfalls to Watch for With Slot Machines
Identifying LDWs and near wins is a big step towards being a responsible slots player. However, these aren’t the only mind tricks you need to be mindful of.
Slot machines and casinos in general include other addictive qualities. Be on the lookout for the following traps.
Falling Into the Slot Machine Zone
Players can fall into a trance-like state while playing slot machines. This situation is what researchers refer to as the “slot machine zone.” Anybody in the slots zone ignores their surroundings and mindlessly spins the reels.
A University of Bergen (Norway) study found that the flashing lights and sounds also encourage gamblers to play faster. The slot machine zone causing both mindless play and quicker betting is a double whammy.
The University of British Columbia (UBC) discovered that problem gamblers are more likely to fall into slots trances than recreational players. Their research required participants to play slot machines and simultaneously watch a white circle on the side.
They were supposed to push a button when the white circle turned into a red square. The problem gamblers missed the red square more than the recreational players because they were so focused on the games.
Compounding matters is that the problem players also lost track of time. Therefore, a slots trance can last for countless hours.
Believing You Can Beat Skill-Based Slot Machines
The casino industry has recently begun rolling out skill-based slot machines. These differ from regular slots by offering bonus rounds that require some degree of skill.
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Here’s an example:
- You’re playing a slot based on gladiators
- You trigger the bonus round
- You fight other gladiators using a joystick and buttons
- The number of gladiators that you defeat determines your score
One big reason why the industry is experimenting with skill-based games is that they want to draw more millennials. This generation isn’t as entertained by slot machines as older generations.
Game developers have responded with skill-based slots. The name suggests that a player may have a stronger chance to win with these games.
However, the truth is that the bonus rounds only play a small role in return to player (RTP). These bonuses normally impact the RTP by just 4-5%.
The main benefit to skill-based slots is that they offer more interactivity. Rather than a random bonus, you actually have the opportunity to control your odds of winning.
Being a skilled player may give you a stronger chance to win. However, you’re still going to be at the mercy of the house edge.
Thinking That Casino Bonuses and Rewards Are “Free”
Internet and land-based casinos give you comps as a way to reward your loyalty. Online casinos offer cashback and free spins, while brick-and-mortar venues give free drinks, hotel stays, meals, and more.
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It can feel like comps are true freebies. You may even want to gamble longer more just to pick up additional comps. However, the reality is that casinos price these offerings into their bottom line.
You may have heard that nothing is free in the casino. It’s true because these rewards don’t come close to equaling your theoretical losses.
Much of the reason why is because comp rates are low. Gambling establishments normally only reward your slots play at 0.1% of total bets.
Considering that slot machines can feature high house edges, you’re not getting much of a deal. Here’s an example to explain:
- You’re playing a slot machine with a 5% house edge (95% RTP)
- You bet $3,000 throughout the session
- 3,000 x 0.05 = $150 in losses
- You’re comped at a 0.1% rate
- 3,000 x 0.001 = $3 in rewards
- 150 / 3 = $50
- Your losses are 50x greater than the comps
Again, it’s always nice to receive freebies based on your play. But you can clearly see that it’s not worth playing more just to pick up comps.
Another type of offer you can get is online casino deposit bonuses. These deals allow you to earn an amount of money based on a percentage of your deposit.
You might see a 100% match bonus worth up to $100. Depositing $100 under this deal would give you the chance to earn a matching cash bonus.
Again, though, casinos never give anything away for free. You need to earn these bonuses by meeting terms and conditions.
Wagering requirements (a.k.a. rollover) are especially important here. The rollover is normally set in a way that you’ll end up losing more money on average when chasing these deals.
I’ve illustrated that below:
- A casino is offering a 100% match bonus up to $500
- You deposit $250, thus qualifying yourself for a matching bonus
- Wagering requirements are 40x the bonus amount
- 250 x 40 = $10,000 total must be wagered
- You play a slot with a 5% house edge
- 10,000 x 0.05 = $500 in theoretical losses
- 500 – 250 = $250 in total losses
Earning a $250 chunk of cash is great. However, you’ll theoretically lose $250 overall to meet the wagering requirements.
The logical move is to look for the highest-paying slots and other casino games. Playing games with higher RTP means that you’ll lose less when meeting rollover.
But casinos have this covered in their terms and conditions. They reduce the amount that high-paying slot machines (e.g., 97% and above) and table games contribute to rollover.
A slot with 98% RTP might only contribute 20% towards the wagering requirements. You’re better off playing a game with 95% RTP in this instance when the bonus is included.
Long story short, don’t be duped into thinking that comps and online bonuses are free money. Just let these rewards come naturally and enjoy yourself while playing.
Conclusion
Near wins and LDWs make slot machines seem nefarious. Going further, it seems best to stay away from these games when considering how they’re programmed.
However, you don’t have to let LDWs and near wins scare you away. You instead just need to be aware of them and know how to play responsibly.
The first thing to realize is that partial wins aren’t real wins. Do the math after each payout and decide whether you’ve truly won or lost.
I’m not saying that you have to stop play each time and obsess over the matter, but it’s good to acknowledge that a $0.50 payout on a $1 spin is a loss.
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It’s also important to know that near wins aren’t as close as you think. Additionally, getting four jackpot symbols doesn’t make you any more likely to win the top prize next time.
Simply being aware of LDWs and near wins is usually enough to combat their psychological effect. You can better stop at a reasonable point if you’ve had a losing session.
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Other mind traps to avoid include chasing comps/bonuses, falling into the slot machine zone, and overvaluing skill-based slots. These are also cases where you can avoid the downsides just by knowing the possible problems.
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In summary, slot machines are supposed to be good sources of entertainment. Make sure to keep them this way by not getting duped by their potentially addictive design.
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